This post on Congregational Vitality and Sustainability is written
By Ken Howard
(This is the fourth of eight articles on MapDash for Faith Communities Analytics)
Two of the most asked questions about analytics provided by MapDash for Faith Communities are about the Congregational Vitality Index (CVI) and the Congregational Sustainability Index (CSI). Both are powerful analytic tools if used wisely. The purpose of this article is to help MapDash users properly understand these tools, so they can interpret them appropriately and apply them effectively.
What They Are and What They Aren’t
CVI and CSI are not assessments. Assessments are direct, graded, criterion-referenced measurements that provide objective answers at a point in time. They make judgements based on facts that either inform or imply what the decision maker should do about it. Example (sailing): Is your boat currently leaking? If yes, fix the leak. If no, good to go.
CVI and CSI are indexes. Indexes are a collection of indicators that sample and describe the relative overall direction of factors that are correlated with a particular concern and may be predictive of it, but they do not measure the concern directly. They describe a trend (e.g., the sustainability or a congregation) and let the user discern what the trend means and what to do about it by filtering insights through the organizations vision, mission, commitments, resources, etc. Example (sailing): If you continue to sail in the direction you have been, are you heading shoreward or toward the open sea? If you mean to sail across the ocean blue, go on with your bad self. If not, better tack toward the shore.
Congregational Vitality Index
The Congregational Vitality Index tells a story about vitality by reporting the general direction of four indicators (internal congregational trends) that tend to be associated with and predictive of congregational health:
- Membership – an indicator of commitment.
- Attendance – an indicator of engagement.
- Age Balance – an indicator of effective evangelism.
- Percentage of Giving* – an indicator of effective stewardship.
The score of each CVI indicator is generated by an algorithm that samples several factors over a 5-year period and reports the results on a 3-point scale, on which every congregation starts with one point and can get no more than three.
Examples:
Membership. Congregation starts with 1 point (low). If membership has grown 3 of the last 5 years OR shows a net increase between the first and last year, it gets one additional point for a total of 2 (moderate). If membership has grown 3 of the last 5 years AND shows a net increase between the first and last year, it gets one additional point for a total of 2 (moderate). If neither of the above are true, it gets no additional points and for a total of 1 (low).
Attendance. Congregation starts with 1 point (low). If attendance is growing OR over a certain number over the 5-year period, it gets one additional point for a total of 2 (moderate). If it is growing AND over a certain number, its get two additional points for a total of 3 (high). If it is neither of the above are true, it gets no additional points and for a total of 1 (low).
Child to Adult Ratio – children as a percentage of membership. Congregation starts with 1 point (low). If percentage of children shows net growth over the 5-year period or ends the period higher than it began, it gets one additional point for a total of 2 (moderate). If it has grown AND ends higher than it started, its get two additional points for a total of 3 (high). If it is neither of the above are true, it gets no additional points and for a total of 1 (low).
Stewardship – a combination of giving per household (GPH) and giving as a percentage of normal operating income (GPI). Congregation starts with 1 point (low). If GPH or GPI is show net growth, it gets one additional point for a total of 2 (moderate). If GPH and GPI show net growth, its get two additional points for a total of 3 (high). If it is neither of the above are true, it gets no additional points, for a total of 1 (low).
Summary Score:
Add the four scores and you get an overall CVI score between 4 (very low) to 8 (moderate) to 12 (very high).
Congregational Sustainability Index
The Congregational Sustainability Index samples over a 5-year period the general direction of four indicators (external demographic projections) that tend to be associated with and predictive of missional opportunity in the neighborhoods surrounding a congregation – what some might call market share (or mission and ministry share). It then reports them on a 3-point scale (1 = low, 2 = moderate, 3 = high).
- Population Growth – Measures and reports the increase or decrease in sustainability driven by population growth or decline. If population growth rate projection is flat (within a 5% range), it gets a score of 2 (moderate). If projected to grow above the moderate range, it gets a 3 (high). If projected to decline below the moderate range, it gets a 1 (low).
- Diversity Growth – Measures and reports the increase or decrease in sustainability driven driven by or diversity growth (turnover of people groups in neighborhoods) or decline. If diversity growth rate projection is flat (within a 5% range), it gets a score of 2 (moderate). If projected to grow above the moderate range, it gets a 3 (high). If projected to decline below the moderate range, it gets a 1 (low).
- Generational Balance – Measures and reports increase or decrease in sustainability driven by increase or decline in population age, and the balance of the “current generation” (35-65) and “future generation” (0-34). If the percentage of the population over 65 (“wisdom generation”) is decreasing AND the “current generation” and “future generation” are moving toward balance, it gets a score of 3 (high). If the percentage over 65 is decreasing OR the “current generation” and “future generation” are moving toward balance, it gets a score of 2 (moderate). If neither are true, it gets a 1 (low).
- Qualified Population – Projects potential membership/ministry share after accounting for population density and same-denomination competition. If available population is within a certain range of the minimum needed to sustain a typical congregation, it gets a 2 (moderate). If available population is above the minimum range, it gets a 3 (high). If available population is below the minimum range, it gets a 0 (lowe).
Summary Score:
Add the four scores to get an overall CSI score between 4 (very low) to 8 (moderate) to 12 (very high).
The Start of Discernment, Not the End
Analytics like CVI and CSI are intended to launch the start of discernment and discussion, not bring them to a close. The ratings are meant to focus attention on certain trends, so that leaders can decide what they mean by exploring the underlying data and weighing it against their intended course.
Example: Declining Surplus Net Income. If congregation’s income is running a substantial surplus that is significantly declining each year this is something to pay attention to and investigate.
If the surplus is declining because leadership has decided to direct increasing amounts of the surplus (or margin) into ministry, then the leadership may want to stay on the current path. But if it is decline due to decreasing individual giving, attendance, or membership, that tells an entirely different story, that may require a different kind of action. Similarly, if a congregation was running increasingly into the red that would be cause for major concern, but if the red ink were decreasing and approaching break-even, this may indicate the vitality improvement strategies are working and should be continued.
In each case, the analytic tells a story, but the leadership has to decide what the story means and what to do about it.
Example: Low Vitality Congregation in a High Sustainability Area. This may tell congregational leadership that there is more missional opportunity in their area than they are currently engaging, and that if they change what they’re doing to engage those opportunities, they may be able to become more vital. Similarly, it may tell judicatory leadership that putting more resources into turning this congregation around may be a good investment.
Example: Low Vitality Congregation in a Low Sustainability Area. This may tell congregational leadership that their current low vitality is not because they are doing anything wrong but because their area is declining (this realization of “not our fault” is a relief to many congregations). Armed with this information, congregation leaders may decide to close or combine with another congregation or sell their building and meet in a movie theater or parishioners’ homes. Or something completely different. Similarly, it may tell judicatory leadership that putting more resources into turning this congregation around may not be a good investment, and that is time to engage in a frank discussion with congregational leadership about their future.
These are just a few illustrations of the usefulness and power of the stories that the Congregational Vitality Index and the Congregational Sustainability Index can reveal, especially when used together. What you do with that story is up to you…
* Percentage Giving is a two-part indicator, combining Regular Giving Per Household and Regular Giving as a Percentage of Operating Income.
FaithX is a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization and Ken’s faith-based consulting practice at FaithX is done under an extension of ministry from the Episcopal Diocese of Washington.
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